In recent years, the industry has focused on the rapid rise in toy consumption by the older children's (12+) group. However, the inertia of focusing on the big hitters' growth has led the industry to overlook some potential problems - for example, with little change in the total market, the growth in big kids' toy consumption means a shrinkage in children's toy consumption.
Trends in children's toy consumption
Over the past five years, the older children's group has been one of the most significant areas of growth in toy consumption in the UK, with 11 million more toys consumed. At the same time, the number of toys consumed by children (0-11 years) has fallen by 68 million. the under-12s account for around three-quarters of the overall toy market in the UK, so a reduction in the number of toys consumed by this group would have a more profound impact on the UK toy market.
Current state of children's toy consumption
Using UK data as an example, the number of toys consumed by the children's group in 2021 fell by 17% compared to 2017, i.e. a reduction in consumption of around £500 million, a much greater rate of decline than in other European countries included in the statistics, which fell by just 2%. Why is this?
Toys for 0-11 year olds in the UK accounted for around 79% of all toys in the UK in 2017, a figure that drops to around 71% by 2021, with the remainder being taken up by toys for 12+ older children. When the children's group is further subdivided into two groups, 0-5 and 6-11, both groups have seen a decline in toy consumption compared to 2017, with the 0-5 group being a little more pronounced and declining year on year since 2017 and in every major category, which can be seen as a long-term trend. In terms of broad categories, the Infant/Toddler/Preschool category has shrunk the most, with sales decreasing by £150 million from 2017 to 2021.
The Infant/Preschool category is the most dominant consumer toy category for the 0-5 age group and is one of the most important categories in the overall UK toy market, accounting for approximately 16% of the UK toy market in 2021. However, this broad category is set to fall by as much as three times as much as the overall UK toy market in 2021. From 2017 to 2021, two-thirds of the decline in the UK toy market stems from this broad category of infant/pre-school.
Future factors affecting children's toys
The number one influencing factor is undoubtedly the continuing low fertility levels. Since 2017 alone, the number of newborns in the UK has fallen by 100,000. Although there was a brief rebound in between, the overall trend remains downwards.
The next issue is the use of environmentally friendly materials. The proportion of wooden toys in children's toys rises from 9% in 2018 to 12% in 2021. More and more children's toys are now incorporating some element of environmental protection to a greater or lesser extent. I wonder if the sales of such toys will increase in 2022?
According to statistics, the UK toy market will have sales of £3.2 billion in 2021, down 3% on 2020 and up 2% on 2019. With little change in the size of the market, the increase in toy consumption by the older children's group is certainly welcome, but we cannot ignore the shrinking consumption of the children's group behind the growth, and we need to work on both ends to make the cake bigger.